the black swan: second edition: the impact of the highly improbable: with a new section: "on robustness and fragility"

the black swan: second edition: the impact of the highly improbable: with a new section: "on robustness and fragility"

The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New Section: "On Robustness and Fragility"

Paperback: 444 pages

Product Dimensions: 132.08 x 200.66 x 27.94mm

"The Black Swan "is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don t understand. The other books in the series are "Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, "and "The Bed of Procrustes." 

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. 

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible. 

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. 

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, "The Black Swan" will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. "The Black Swan" is a landmark book itself a black swan. 

Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb 

The most prophetic voice of all. " GQ"

""

Praise for "The Black Swan" 

[A book] that altered modern thinking. "The Times" (London) 

A masterpiece. Chris Anderson, editor in chief of "Wired, "author of" The Long Tail"

""

Idiosyncratically brilliant. Niall Ferguson, "Los Angeles Times"

""

"The Black Swan" changed my view of how the world works. Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate

[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias

[and] narrative fallacy. " The Wall Street Journal"

""

Hugely enjoyable compelling . . . easy to dip into. "Financial Times"

""

Engaging . . . "The Black Swan" has appealing cheek and admirable ambition. " The New York Times Book Review"

perfume: the story of a murderer

perfume: the story of a murderer

Patrick Suskind's "Perfume" is a classic novel of death and sensuality in Paris. 'In eighteenth-century France there lived a man who was one of the most gifted and abominable personages in an era that knew no lack of gifted and abominable personages. His name was Jean-Baptiste Grenouille, and if his name has been forgotten today, it is certainly not because Grenouille fell short of those more famous blackguards when it came to arrogance, misanthropy, immorality, or, more succinctly, wickedness, but because his gifts and his sole ambition were restricted to a domain that leaves no traces in history: to the fleeting realm of scent...' "An astonishing tour de force both in concept and execution". ("Guardian"). "A fantastic tale of murder and twisted eroticism controlled by a disgusted loathing of humanity...Clever, stylish, absorbing and well worth reading". ("Literary Review"). "A meditation on the nature of death, desire and decay ...a remarkable debut". (Peter Ackroyd, "The New York Times Book Review"). "Unlike anything else one has read. A phenomenon...Everyone seems to want to get a whiff of this strange perfume, which will remain unique in contemporary literature". ("Figaro"). "An ingenious and totally absorbing fantasy". ("Daily Telegraph"). "Witty, stylish and ferociously absorbing". ("Observer"). Patrick Suskind was born near Munich, in 1949. He studied medieval and modern history at the University of Munich. His first play, "The Double Bass", was written in 1980 and became an international success. His first novel, "Perfume", became an internationally acclaimed bestseller. He is also the author of "The Pigeon" and "Mr. Summer's Story", and a coauthor of the enormously successful German television series "Kir Royal". Patrick Suskind lives and writes in Munich.

miss peregrine's home for peculiar children (miss peregrine's peculiar children)

miss peregrine's home for peculiar children (miss peregrine's peculiar children)

A New York Times #1 best seller

On the New York Times Best Seller List for more than 52 consecutive weeks

Includes an excerpt from the much-anticipated sequel and an interview with author Ransom Riggs

A mysterious island.



An abandoned orphanage.



A strange collection of very curious photographs.



It all waits to be discovered in Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, an unforgettable novel that mixes fiction and photography in a thrilling reading experience. As our story opens, a horrific family tragedy sets sixteen-year-old Jacob journeying to a remote island off the coast of Wales, where he discovers the crumbling ruins of Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children. As Jacob explores its abandoned bedrooms and hallways, it becomes clear that the children were more than just peculiar. They may have been dangerous. They may have been quarantined on a deserted island for good reason. And somehow—impossible though it seems—they may still be alive. 

A spine-tingling fantasy illustrated with haunting vintage photography, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children will delight adults, teens, and anyone who relishes an adventure in the shadows.

“A tense, moving, and wondrously strange first novel. The photographs and text work together brilliantly to create an unforgettable story.”—John Green, New York Times best-selling author of The Fault in Our Stars

“With its X-Men: First Class-meets-time-travel story line, David Lynchian imagery, and rich, eerie detail, it’s no wonder Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children has been snapped up by Twentieth Century Fox. B+”—Entertainment Weekly

‘Peculiar’ doesn’t even begin to cover it. Riggs’ chilling, wondrous novel is already headed to the movies.”—People

“You’ll love it if you want a good thriller for the summer. It’s a mystery, and you’ll race to solve it before Jacob figures it out for himself.”—Seventeen

the power of habit: why we do what we do in life and business

the power of habit: why we do what we do in life and business

OVER 60 WEEKS ON THE NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER LIST

With a new Afterword by the author

In The Power of Habit, Pulitzer Prize–winning business reporterCharles Duhigg takes us to the thrilling edge of scientific discoveries that explain why habits exist and how they can be changed. Distilling vast amounts of information into engrossing narratives that take us from the boardrooms of Procter & Gamble to sidelines of the NFL to the front lines of the civil rights movement, Duhigg presents a whole new understanding of human nature and its potential. At its core, The Power of Habit contains an exhilarating argument: The key to exercising regularly, losing weight, being more productive, and achieving success is understanding how habits work. As Duhigg shows, by harnessing this new science, we can transform our businesses, our communities, and our lives.

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NPRBESTSELLER • WASHINGTON POST BESTSELLER • LOS ANGELES TIMES BESTSELLER • USA TODAY BESTSELLER • PUBLISHERS WEEKLY BESTSELLER

NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY

The Wall Street Journal • Financial Times

“Sharp, provocative, and useful.”—Jim Collins

“Few [books] become essential manuals for business and living. The Power of Habit is an exception. Charles Duhigg not only explains how habits are formed but how to kick bad ones and hang on to the good.”—Financial Times

“A flat-out great read.”—David Allen, bestselling author of Getting Things Done: The Art of Stress-Free Productivity

“You’ll never look at yourself, your organization, or your world quite the same way.”—Daniel H. Pink, bestselling author of Drive and A Whole New Mind

“Entertaining . . . enjoyable . . . fascinating . . . a serious look at the science of habit formation and change.”—The New York Times Book Review

“Cue: see cover. Routine: read book. Reward: fully comprehend the art of manipulation.”—Bloomberg Businessweek

“Absolutely fascinating.”—Wired

“A fresh examination of how routine behaviors take hold and whether they are susceptible to change . . . The stories that Duhigg has knitted together are all fascinating in their own right, but take on an added dimension when wedded to his examination of habits.”— Associated Press

“There’s been a lot of research over the past several years about how our habits shape us, and this work is beautifully described in the new book The Power of Habit.”—David Brooks, The New York Times

“A first-rate book—based on an impressive mass of research, written in a lively style and providing just the right balance of intellectual seriousness with practical advice on how to break our bad habits.”—The Economist

“I have been spinning like a top since reading The Power of Habit, New York Times journalist Charles Duhigg’s fascinating best-seller about how people, businesses and organizations develop the positive routines that make them productive—and happy.”—The Washington Post

Tải Sách là website thư viên sách chia sẻ tài liệu sách với nhiều định dạng pdf/epub/mobi/prc/azw3 được tổng hợp mới nhất. Bạn có thể đọc online hoặc download về các thiết bị di động, máy tính, máy đọc sách để trải nghiệm.

Liên Hệ