noise: a flaw in human judgment

noise: a flaw in human judgment

<p>Noise: A Flaw In Human Judgment</p>

<p>From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones--"a tour de force" (New York Times).</p>

<p>Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients--or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants--or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.</p>

<p>In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.</p>

<p>Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment--and what we can do about it.</p>

circe

circe

<p>Circe</p>

<p>"A bold and subversive retelling of the goddess's story," this 1 New York Times bestseller is "both epic and intimate in its scope, recasting the most infamous female figure from the Odyssey as a hero in her own right" (Alexandra Alter, The New York Times).</p>

<p>In the house of Helios, god of the sun and mightiest of the Titans, a daughter is born. But Circe is a strange child -- not powerful, like her father, nor viciously alluring like her mother. Turning to the world of mortals for companionship, she discovers that she does possess power -- the power of witchcraft, which can transform rivals into monsters and menace the gods themselves.</p>

<p>Threatened, Zeus banishes her to a deserted island, where she hones her occult craft, tames wild beasts and crosses paths with many of the most famous figures in all of mythology, including the Minotaur, Daedalus and his doomed son Icarus, the murderous Medea, and, of course, wily Odysseus.</p>

<p>But there is danger, too, for a woman who stands alone, and Circe unwittingly draws the wrath of both men and gods, ultimately finding herself pitted against one of the most terrifying and vengeful of the Olympians. To protect what she loves most, Circe must summon all her strength and choose, once and for all, whether she belongs with the gods she is born from, or the mortals she has come to love.</p>

<p>With unforgettably vivid characters, mesmerizing language, and page-turning suspense, Circe is a triumph of storytelling, an intoxicating epic of family rivalry, palace intrigue, love and loss, as well as a celebration of indomitable female strength in a man's world.</p>

<p>1 New York Times Bestseller -- named one of the Best Books of the Year by NPR, the Washington Post, People, Time, Amazon, Entertainment Weekly, Bustle, Newsweek, the A.V. Club, Christian Science Monitor, Refinery 29, Buzzfeed, Paste, Audible, Kirkus, Publishers Weekly, Thrillist, NYPL, Self, Real Simple, Goodreads, Boston Globe, Electric Literature, BookPage, the Guardian, Book Riot, Seattle Times, and Business Insider.</p>

dopesick: dealers, doctors, and the drug company that addicted america

dopesick: dealers, doctors, and the drug company that addicted america

<p>Dopesick: Dealers, Doctors, And The Drug Company That Addicted America</p>

<p>Journalist Beth Macy's definitive account of America's opioid&nbsp;epidemic "masterfully interlaces stories of communities in crisis with dark histories of corporate greed and regulatory indifference" (New York Times) -- from the boardroom to the courtroom and into the living rooms of&nbsp;Americans.&nbsp;In this extraordinary work, Beth Macy takes us into the epicenter of a national drama that has unfolded over two decades. From the labs and marketing departments of big pharma to local doctor's offices; wealthy suburbs to distressed small communities in Central Appalachia; from distant cities to once-idyllic farm towns; the spread of opioid addiction follows a tortuous trajectory that illustrates how this crisis has persisted for so long and become so firmly entrenched.</p>

<p>Beginning with a single dealer who lands in a small Virginia town and sets about turning high school football stars into heroin overdose statistics, Macy sets out to answer a grieving mother's question-why her only son died-and comes away with a gripping, unputdownable story of greed and need. From the introduction of OxyContin in 1996, Macy investigates the powerful forces that led America's doctors and patients to embrace a medical culture where overtreatment with painkillers became the norm. In some of the same communities featured in her bestselling book&nbsp;Factory Man, the unemployed use painkillers both to numb the pain of joblessness and pay their bills, while privileged teens trade pills in cul-de-sacs, and even high school standouts fall prey to prostitution, jail, and death.</p>

<p>Through unsparing, compelling, and unforgettably humane portraits of families and first responders determined to ameliorate this epidemic, each facet of the crisis comes into focus. In these politically fragmented times, Beth Macy shows that one thing uniting Americans across geographic, partisan, and class lines is opioid drug abuse. But even in the midst of twin crises in drug abuse and healthcare, Macy finds reason to hope and ample signs of the spirit and tenacity that are helping the countless ordinary people ensnared by addiction build a better future for themselves, their families, and their communities.</p>

<p>"An impressive feat of journalism, monumental in scope and urgent in its implications." -- Jennifer Latson,&nbsp;The Boston Globe</p>

the deficit myth: modern monetary theory and the birth of the people's economy

the deficit myth: modern monetary theory and the birth of the people's economy

<p>The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory And The Birth Of The People's Economy</p>

<p>A New York Times Bestseller</p>

<p>The leading thinker and most visible public advocate of modern monetary theory -- the freshest and most important idea about economics in decades -- delivers a radically different, bold, new understanding for how to build a just and prosperous society.</p>

<p>Stephanie Kelton's brilliant exploration of modern monetary theory (MMT) dramatically changes our understanding of how we can best deal with crucial issues ranging from poverty and inequality to creating jobs, expanding health care coverage, climate change, and building resilient infrastructure. Any ambitious proposal, however, inevitably runs into the buzz saw of how to find the money to pay for it, rooted in myths about deficits that are hobbling us as a country.</p>

<p>Kelton busts through the myths that prevent us from taking action: that the federal government should budget like a household, that deficits will harm the next generation, crowd out private investment, and undermine long-term growth, and that entitlements are propelling us toward a grave fiscal crisis.</p>

<p>MMT, as Kelton shows, shifts the terrain from narrow budgetary questions to one of broader economic and social benefits. With its important new ways of understanding money, taxes, and the critical role of deficit spending, MMT redefines how to responsibly use our resources so that we can maximize our potential as a society. MMT gives us the power to imagine a new politics and a new economy and move from a narrative of scarcity to one of opportunity.</p>

the alternative - how to build a just economy

the alternative - how to build a just economy

<p>The Alternative - How To Build A Just Economy</p>

<p>Winners Take All meets Nickel and Dimed in this provocative debunking of accepted wisdom, providing the pathway to a sustainable, survivable economy.</p>

<p>Confronted by the terrifying trends of the early twenty-first century – widening inequality, environmental destruction, and the immiseration of millions of workers around the world – many economists and business leaders still preach dogmas that lack evidence and create political catastrophe: Private markets are always more efficient than public ones; investment capital flows efficiently to necessary projects; massive inequality is the unavoidable side effect of economic growth; people are selfish and will only behave well with the right incentives.</p>

<p>But a growing number of people – academic economists, business owners, policy entrepreneurs, and ordinary people – are rejecting these myths and reshaping economies around the world to reflect ethical and social values. Though they differ in approach, all share a vision of the economy as a place of moral action and accountability. Journalist Nick Romeo has spent years covering the world’s most innovative economic and policy ideas for The New Yorker. Romeo takes us on an extraordinary journey through the unforgettable stories and successes of people working to build economies that are more equal, just, and livable. Combining original, in-depth reporting with expert analysis, Romeo explores:</p>

<p>The successful business owners organizing their companies as purpose trusts (as Patagonia recently did) to fulfill a higher mission, such as sharing profits with workers or protecting the environment</p>

<p>The growing deployment of new models by venture capital funds to promote wealth creation for the poorest Americans and address climate change.</p>

<p>How Oslo’s climate budgeting program is achieving the emission reduction targets the rest of the world continues to miss, creating a model that will soon be emulated by governments around the world</p>

<p>How Portugal strengths democratic culture by letting citizens make crucial budget decisions</p>

<p>The way worker ownership and cooperatives foster innovation, share wealth, and improve the quality of jobs, offering an increasingly popular model superior to the traditional corporation</p>

<p>The public-sector marketplace that offers decent work and real protections to gig workers in California</p>

<p>The job guarantee program in southern Austria that offers high-quality meaningful jobs to every citizen</p>

<p>Many books have exposed what’s not working in our current system. Romeo reveals something even more essential: the structure of a system that could actually work for everyone. Margaret Thatcher was wrong: there is an alternative. This is what it looks like.</p>

sustain your game: high performance keys to manage stress, avoid stagnation, and beat burnout

sustain your game: high performance keys to manage stress, avoid stagnation, and beat burnout

<p>Sustain Your Game: High Performance Keys To Manage Stress, Avoid Stagnation, And Beat Burnout</p>

<p>Sustain Your Game is built upon a simple premise: each of us will always be under construction, a work in progress, and constantly evolving. The goal is to be moving toward our highest potential, toward making a meaningful contribution, and toward becoming the best version of ourselves.</p>

<p>Based on his years as a successful basketball performance coach—having worked with and alongside superstars like Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and Kobe Bryant—and a keynote speaker to major companies like Pepsi and Amex, Alan Stein Jr. brings you the keys to lasting, unimaginable success. The secret? Sustain Your Game teaches a timeline of short term to medium term to long term because we are always battling all three: stress in the now, stagnation in the present, and burnout in the long term.</p>

<p>Part I—PERFORM is about managing stress in the day-to-day (short term)

Part II—PIVOT is about avoiding stagnation in your current situation (medium term)

Part III—PREVAIL is about beating burnout and making a lasting impact (long term)</p>

<p>This book is for high performers who want to learn practical strategies and action steps on how to sustain their game across all three timelines. It assembles invaluable advice and lessons from successful athletes, entrepreneurs, social scientists, journalists, CEOs, motivational speakers, business coaches, and consultants, as well as Alan’s own personal stories.</p>

not to scale: how the small becomes large, the large becomes unthinkable, and the unthinkable becomes possible

not to scale: how the small becomes large, the large becomes unthinkable, and the unthinkable becomes possible

<p>Not To Scale: How The Small Becomes Large, The Large Becomes Unthinkable, And The Unthinkable Becomes Possible</p>

<p>From research to practical application, Not To Scale explores an influential theory in an accessible way.</p>

<p>The dictionary defines "scale" as a range of numbers, used as a system to measure or compare things. We use this concept in every aspect of our lives-it is essential to innovation, helps us weigh options, and shapes our understanding of the impact of our actions.</p>

<p>In Not to Scale, Jamer Hunt investigates the complications of scale in the digital age, highlighting an interesting paradox: We now have a world of information at our fingertips, yet ironically the more informed we have become, the more overwhelmed we feel. The global effects of our daily choices (Paper or plastic? Own or lease? Shop local or buy online?) remain difficult for us to comprehend, and solutions to large-scale national and international issues feel inconceivable.</p>

<p>Hunt explains how these challenges are intimately tied to a new logic of scale and provides readers with survival skills for the twenty-first century. By taking massive problems and shrinking them down to size, we can use scale to effect positive change and adapt to the modern era. Connecting our smallest decisions to the grand scheme of things, Not to Scale is a fascinating and empowering guide to comprehending and navigating the high stakes often obscured from our view. From research to practical application, Not To Scale explores an influential theory in an accessible way.

The dictionary defines "scale" as a range of numbers, used as a system to measure or compare things. We use this concept in every aspect of our lives-it is essential to innovation, helps us weigh options, and shapes our understanding of the impact of our actions.</p>

<p>In Not to Scale, Jamer Hunt investigates the complications of scale in the digital age, highlighting an interesting paradox: We now have a world of information at our fingertips, yet ironically the more informed we have become, the more overwhelmed we feel. The global effects of our daily choices (Paper or plastic? Own or lease? Shop local or buy online?) remain difficult for us to comprehend, and solutions to large-scale national and international issues feel inconceivable.</p>

<p>Hunt explains how these challenges are intimately tied to a new logic of scale and provides readers with survival skills for the twenty-first century. By taking massive problems and shrinking them down to size, we can use scale to effect positive change and adapt to the modern era. Connecting our smallest decisions to the grand scheme of things, Not to Scale is a fascinating and empowering guide to comprehending and navigating the high stakes often obscured from our view.</p>

bossed up: a grown woman's guide to getting your sh*t together

bossed up: a grown woman's guide to getting your sh*t together

<p>Bossed Up: A Grown Woman's Guide To Getting Your Sh*t Together</p>

<p>In this candid, refreshing guide for young women to take with us as we run the world, Emilie Aries shows you how to own your power, know your worth, and design your career and life accordingly.</p>

<p>Young women today face an uncertain job market, the pressure to ascend at all costs, and a fear of burning out. But the landscape is changing, and women are taking an assertive role in shaping our careers and lives, while investing more and more in our community of support.</p>

<p>Bossed Up teaches you how to:</p>

<p>- Break out of the "martyrdom mindset," and cultivate your Boss Identity by getting clear on what you really want for your career and life without apology;

- Hone the self-advocacy skills necessary for success;

- Understand the differences between being assertive (which is part of being a leader) and being aggressive (which is more like being a bully) - and how that clarity can transform your trajectory;

- Beat burnout by identifying how the warning signs may be showing up in your life and how to prioritize bringing more rest, purpose, agency, and community to your day-to-day life;

- Unpack the steps to cultivating something more than just confidence; a boss identity, which will establish your ability to be the boss of your life no matter what comes your way.</p>

<p>Drawing from timely research, and with personal stories, and spotlights on a diverse group of women from the Bossed Up community, this book will show you how to craft a happy, healthy, and sustainable career path you'll love.</p>

the magic misfits 2: the second story

the magic misfits 2: the second story

<p>The Magic Misfits 2: The Second Story</p>

<p>From award-winning actor Neil Patrick Harris comes the magical second book in the&nbsp;New York Times&nbsp;bestselling Magic Misfits series--with even more tricks up its sleeve.</p>

<p>Growing up in an orphanage, Leila was bullied for being different. She turned her hardship into skill by becoming an escape artist--a valuable trait when you belong to a group of magical best friends. But when a famous psychic comes to town, Leila and her pals can't escape the big mystery heading their way. Whether chasing mad monkeys or banishing ghosts from haunted hotels, these six friends will do their best to keep their home of Mineral Wells safe--but can they protect themselves?</p>

<p>Join the Magic Misfits as they discover adventure, friendship, and more than a few hidden secrets in this delightful new series. Whether you're a long-time expert at illusion or simply a new fan of stage magic, hold onto your top hat!</p>

<p>...have more questions? I thought you might. Here are some answers:</p>

<p>WHERE?&nbsp;A sleepy town in New England. Within the town is a magic shop, run by the friendly but mysterious Dante Vernon--the gang's caped and top-hatted mentor.</p>

<p>WHO?&nbsp;Carter, who can make things vanish. Leila, who can escape from anything. Theo, who can make things levitate. Ridley, who can invent anything. And twins Olly and Izzy, who can make anyone laugh.</p>

<p>WHY?&nbsp;Because together, these six magical misfits will discover adventure, friendship, and the town's long-hidden secrets.</p>

<p>(Psst. Hey, you! Yes, YOU! Congratulations on reading this far down. As a reward, I'll let you in on a little secret... This book isn't just a book. It's a treasure trove of secrets and ciphers and codes and even tricks. Keep your eyes peeled and you'll discover more than just a story--you'll learn how to make your own magic!)</p>

the levelling: what's next after globalization

the levelling: what's next after globalization

<p>The Levelling: What's Next After Globalization</p>

<p>A brilliant analysis of the transition in world economics, finance, and power as the era of globalization ends and gives way to new power centers and institutions.</p>

<p>The world is at a turning point similar to the fall of communism. Then, many focused on the collapse itself, and failed to see that a bigger trend, globalization, was about to take hold. The benefits of globalization--through the freer flow of money, people, ideas, and trade--have been many. But rather than a world that is flat, what has emerged is one of jagged peaks and rough, deep valleys characterized by wealth inequality, indebtedness, political recession, and imbalances across the world's economies.</p>

<p>These peaks and valleys are undergoing what Michael O'Sullivan calls "the levelling"--a major transition in world economics, finance, and power. What's next is a levelling-out of wealth between poor and rich countries, of power between nations and regions, of political accountability from elites to the people, and of institutional power away from central banks and defunct twentieth-century institutions such as the WTO and the IMF.</p>

<p>O'Sullivan then moves to ways we can develop new, pragmatic solutions to such critical problems as political discontent, stunted economic growth, the productive functioning of finance, and political-economic structures that serve broader needs.</p>

<p>The Levelling&nbsp;comes at a crucial time in the rise and fall of nations. It has special importance for the US as its place in the world undergoes radical change--the ebbing of influence, profound questions over its economic model, societal decay, and the turmoil of public life.</p>

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